Product Strategy · Governed Data Landscapes · Causal Retention For $5M–$50M Health, Longevity & Subscription Brands

Most of your churn is decided before Order 3.

You are losing 48% of subscribers before their third shipment. Not because your clinical formulation failed, but because your 30-day billing clock outpaces the 66-day human habit curve, and 58% of exits bypass your cancel portal entirely. We unify your data spine and intercept at-risk cohorts 14 days before they churn, without margin-killing 20% discount codes.

Calculate My Revenue at Risk

30-minute architectural review · Built inside your stack · Zero vendor lock-in

Cohort Survival & Revenue Telemetry THE DAY-45 BLIND SPOT
100% 72% 52% 0% Day 0 Day 30 (Ord 2) Day 60 (Ord 3) Day 90 Governed Spine + Cadence Sync THE CORNER (48% Lost)

Wouldn't you have liked to see around that corner at Day 21?

30-day billing clocks collide with the 66-day human habit curve while 58% of exits bypass your portal.

48% Subscribers lost /
before Order 3 Recharge · Loop · Skio 2026
58% Churners bypassing /
your cancel portal Gorgias + Max-Retry Dunning
66 Days Human biological /
habit formation curve vs. 30-Day Billing Clock
78→22% Holdout vs. treated /
at-risk cohort churn Causal Uplift Pilot · 90 Days
The Root Cause

Your dashboard tells you who churned. We tell you who would have stayed.

Standard retention dashboards only report descriptive obituaries after a subscriber leaves. When a customer misses 7 to 10 doses of their protocol in Month 1, shipping Bottle #2 on a rigid Day-30 clock creates a physical counter backlog that triggers guilt-driven cancellations.

At the same time, six out of ten departing subscribers never see your cancel flow. They email CX agents in Gorgias for manual cancellation (23%) or silently expire via rigid payment retry rules (35%).

Synevum unifies your commerce, subscription, and support tables into a single governed spine, isolating persuadable churners 14 days upstream and triggering the exact cadence or payment intervention that protects full-price LTV.

24% (#1 Exit)

Of supplement cancellations cite "too much product left," beating price sensitivity (19%).

+4.2% Lift

Net retention lift & 30% cut in processing fees via decline-code and payday dunning routing.

Interactive Diagnostic · Net_EVaR Live Telemetry Math
Active Subscribers 10,000
Avg. Monthly Subscription Value ($ USD) $65
Current Monthly Churn Rate 10%

H&W consumable benchmark: 8–12% monthly (58% exiting outside the portal)

Annual Revenue at Risk

$780,000

$452,400 bypassing portal

Causal Margin Recovery

$187,200

Net-new retained LTV / yr

From a Recent Deployment

"1,240 high-spend subscribers flagged 14 days upstream. The holdout control group churned at 78%. The cohort routed to cadence-shift and payday dunning churned at 22%."

How It Works · From Mess to Machine

What you actually receive: the governed spine and weekly save payload.

We unify your fragmented tables into one AI-ready semantic layer and route prescriptive retention actions straight into Recharge, Loop, Klaviyo, and Gorgias. No 40-tab spreadsheet. You own the entire infrastructure.

01 · SILO INGESTION

Shopify Plus / Checkout
Recharge / Loop / Skio
Klaviyo / Attentive CRM
Gorgias / Zendesk CX Tickets
3PL / ERP Inventory & CoAs
→

02 · GOVERNED CAUSAL ENGINE

Unified Semantic Spine

Databricks · Snowflake · dbt

Reconciles Finance & Growth KPIs with zero LLM hallucination.

Predictive Risk & Uplift

XGBoost · SHAP · RCT Holdouts

Separates Persuadables from Sure Things and Sleeping Dogs.

Biological Habituation Sync

Day-21 Compliance Telemetry

Matches 30-day billing clocks to the 66-day human habit curve.

→

03 · AUTOMATED INTERVENTION

SUB ID NET_EVAR TRIGGER
#4902 $412 +14d Cadence
#8104 $385 Payday Retry
#2291 $340 SKU Swap
#6730 $295 Suppress (Sure)

LIVE EXECUTION

Pushed directly into Recharge/Loop, Klaviyo, and Gorgias macros. Zero manual CSV stitching.

Why Synevum Exists

Built by an enterprise data architect who actually lives clinical longevity.

Most health and longevity founders are trapped between two bad options: retention agencies throwing 20% discount codes at cancel flows, or traditional tech consultancies pitching year-long BI projects led by engineers who don't know magnesium bisglycinate from generic oxide fillers.

I started my career modeling antioxidant stability using Response Surface Methodology at USP, spent 15+ years leading enterprise data architecture, financial P&L modeling, and global commodity pricing, and completed doctoral research in Business Administration at FGV. Personally, I have practiced a 20-hour daily fast since 2010 and track my own DEXA and biomarker logs to the decimal.

Gabriel Favalli, PhD (c)

Founder & Principal Data Architect · Synevum

LinkedIn Profile ↗

This Is Not For You If

  • —You are under $3M in annual revenue (the unit economics do not yet justify custom architecture).
  • —You want a generic agency to write newsletter copy rather than fix your underlying data spine.

This Is Built For You If

  • —You run a $5M–$50M health, longevity, or subscription brand (or scaling enterprise) on Shopify, Recharge/Loop/Skio, Klaviyo, and Gorgias.
  • —You want a governed semantic layer and causal retention engine built inside your stack that your team owns outright.
  • —You want to eliminate Order-2 inventory churn and unmonitored support/dunning leaks in weeks, not 12 months.
Investment & Process

A fixed price for an architectural answer.

You never buy open-ended consulting hours. You buy a defined commercial and technical outcome in three steps.

Phase 01 · 14 Days

The Behavioral & Data Diagnostic

Fixed-Fee Entry Audit

  • —90-Day Cohort & Survival Curve Audit
  • —58% Non-Portal Churn & Dunning Map
  • —Day-45 Habituation & SKU Lag Analysis
  • —Executive Readout & Architecture Blueprint

Yours to keep, either way.

Phase 02 · 4–6 Weeks

Spine & Causal Engine Build

Turnkey Implementation

100% of your Phase 01 Diagnostic fee is credited toward the Build when signed within 14 days.
  • —Unified Semantic Spine (Shopify/Recharge/Gorgias)
  • —XGBoost/SHAP Net_EVaR Scoring Deployment
  • —Day-21 Cadence Shift & Payday Retry Flows
  • —Reconciled Board & Operator KPI Suite

Built inside your stack. Zero dependency.

Phase 03 · Ongoing

Fractional Strategy & Governance

Advisory & Continuous Holdouts

  • —Continuous Randomized Holdout (RCT) Testing
  • —New SKU Launch & Bundle Retention Modeling
  • —AI Readiness & Semantic Layer Governance
  • —Fractional CDO Leadership (No $250k FTE Overhead)

Month-to-month · Or performance-linked

Current Cohort Capacity · 2 of 3 architecture client slots remaining for this quarter
The Decision

Every billing cycle you wait, $187,200 of recoverable margin compounds into permanent loss.

Thirty minutes. No sales fluff. Bring your current subscription and retention questions, and we will map where your cohorts are leaking and whether an architectural fix makes financial sense.

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